Lyce · Hybrid Watch

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NATO Baltic Air Policing identifies and escorts Russian Su-24SM aircraft flying from Kaliningrad without transponders or flight plans.

NATO Baltic Air Policing fighter jets identified and escorted two Russian Su-24SM aircraft flying from Kaliningrad and back through international airspace. The Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence reported that the aircraft had their onboard transponders switched off, had no flight plans, and were not maintaining radio communication. This means the incident was not presented as a confirmed violation of Lithuanian, Latvian or Estonian sovereign airspace, but it still involved Russian military aircraft violating international aviation safety rules. The absence of transponders and flight plans increases risk for civilian and military aviation because it reduces predictability and makes aircraft harder to integrate safely into monitored airspace. The Baltic Sea is already a sensitive NATO-Russia contact zone, so such flights have a coercive function even when they remain technically outside national airspace. The incident also fits a broader pattern of Russian aircraft probing NATO air policing readiness around the Baltic states. From a hybrid-threat perspective, the value of the operation lies in forcing NATO to activate detection, identification and escort procedures. It tests response time, radar coverage and operational coordination without crossing into open military confrontation. The Russian aircraft’s route from Kaliningrad is especially relevant because Kaliningrad is a heavily militarised Russian exclave between NATO members.

Occurrence
2026-05-01
Publication
2026-05-01T17:36:11Z
First observed
2026-09-24T06:09:10.079Z
Review status
Not assessed
Countries
EE, LT, LV
Updated
2026-09-27T23:56:59.668Z

E/M/R/S scores

  • EExistence0/4 · Not assessed
  • MIntent0/4 · Not assessed
  • RRussian actor link0/4 · Not assessed
  • SRussian state responsibility0/4 · Not assessed

Facts

No facts

Sources

  1. Role
    discovery_lead
    Date
    2026-05-01T17:36:11Z

    NATO Baltic Air Policing fighter jets identified and escorted two Russian Su-24SM aircraft flying from Kaliningrad and back through international airspace. The Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence reported that the aircraft had their onboard transponders switched off, had no flight plans, and were not maintaining radio communication. This means the incident was not presented as a confirmed violation of Lithuanian, Latvian or Estonian sovereign airspace, but it still involved Russian military aircraft violating international aviation safety rules. The absence of transponders and flight plans increases risk for civilian and military aviation because it reduces predictability and makes aircraft harder to integrate safely into monitored airspace. The Baltic Sea is already a sensitive NATO-Russia contact zone, so such flights have a coercive function even when they remain technically outside national airspace. The incident also fits a broader pattern of Russian aircraft probing NATO air policing readiness around the Baltic states. From a hybrid-threat perspective, the value of the operation lies in forcing NATO to activate detection, identification and escort procedures. It tests response time, radar coverage and operational coordination without crossing into open military confrontation. The Russian aircraft’s route from Kaliningrad is especially relevant because Kaliningrad is a heavily militarised Russian exclave between NATO members.