Lyce · Hybrid Watch

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Russian submarine and escort ships monitored off the coast of Portugal in the Atlantic.

The Marinha Portuguesa (Portuguese Navy) reported that the submarine Krasnodar and accompanying Russian surface vessels were tracked as they transited near Portuguese waters, under surveillance by Portugal’s naval assets. The incident did not involve a reported attack or damage, yet the presence of a foreign submarine within Portugal’s maritime domain triggered elevated alert for under-sea infrastructure and national maritime sovereignty. The action took place off the western European littoral rather than near the Russian theatre or eastern borders, illustrating how hybrid-warfare operations extend far beyond immediate conflict zones. The dynamics suggest a reconnaissance and coercion posture: by moving naval assets through or near another country’s EEZ, the adversary tests monitoring systems, signals reach, and leverages latent threat. While no overt sabotage occurred, the submarine’s passage raises concerns about potential under-sea cable or pipeline vulnerability and the need for constant tracking of naval movements. The Portuguese Navy statement emphasised the need for continuous maritime surveillance and national protection of strategic infrastructure. The incident underscores that even states geographically distant from the Russia-Ukraine front are being drawn into the grey-zone maritime operations of the Russian Federation.

Occurrence
2023-10-16
Publication
2023-10-15T22:00:00Z
First observed
2026-09-24T06:09:10.079Z
Review status
Not assessed
Countries
PT
Updated
2026-09-27T23:56:59.668Z

E/M/R/S scores

  • EExistence0/4 · Not assessed
  • MIntent0/4 · Not assessed
  • RRussian actor link0/4 · Not assessed
  • SRussian state responsibility0/4 · Not assessed

Facts

No facts

Sources

  1. Role
    discovery_lead
    Date
    2023-10-15T22:00:00Z

    The Marinha Portuguesa (Portuguese Navy) reported that the submarine Krasnodar and accompanying Russian surface vessels were tracked as they transited near Portuguese waters, under surveillance by Portugal’s naval assets. The incident did not involve a reported attack or damage, yet the presence of a foreign submarine within Portugal’s maritime domain triggered elevated alert for under-sea infrastructure and national maritime sovereignty. The action took place off the western European littoral rather than near the Russian theatre or eastern borders, illustrating how hybrid-warfare operations extend far beyond immediate conflict zones. The dynamics suggest a reconnaissance and coercion posture: by moving naval assets through or near another country’s EEZ, the adversary tests monitoring systems, signals reach, and leverages latent threat. While no overt sabotage occurred, the submarine’s passage raises concerns about potential under-sea cable or pipeline vulnerability and the need for constant tracking of naval movements. The Portuguese Navy statement emphasised the need for continuous maritime surveillance and national protection of strategic infrastructure. The incident underscores that even states geographically distant from the Russia-Ukraine front are being drawn into the grey-zone maritime operations of the Russian Federation.